Posts: 116
Join Date: Jun 2008
IGN: Ebob
Server: Clockworks
Guild: Ancient
07-14-2008, 05:29 AM
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LET ME CLEAR SOMETHING UP
The chance of winning versus losing is 50%. There are 3 choices, yes, but one ends up in a redo no matter how many times you get that one, making it moot. Basically, you can just discard the tie when you think about the ratio of winning to losing, therefore making it 1:1 or a 50% chance of winning. Also, you have a 50% chance of losing. Now when you look at the percentage of winning OR keeping what you have and getting another chance against losing it all, you get 66%, as you include the tie as not losing it all.
Posts: 1,168
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: USA, MI
IGN: MStevens24
Server: Lawolf
Guild: Illuminati
07-14-2008, 08:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ebob
LET ME CLEAR SOMETHING UP
The chance of winning versus losing is 50%. There are 3 choices, yes, but one ends up in a redo no matter how many times you get that one, making it moot. Basically, you can just discard the tie when you think about the ratio of winning to losing, therefore making it 1:1 or a 50% chance of winning. Also, you have a 50% chance of losing. Now when you look at the percentage of winning OR keeping what you have and getting another chance against losing it all, you get 66%, as you include the tie as not losing it all.
It's alllll about perspective.
Your argument is flawed, in the sence that their is a 66% chance that you will be able to continue, and a 33% chance you wont be able to continue.
You cant just say their are only 1 way of winning there fore its only a 50% chance.
Its like this say, their are 10 lottery tickets, 8 tickets let you play again, 1 is a lose 1 is a win.
You can jsut say, its a 50/50 shot!, b/c its not, same thing in this situation. ALthough to a smaller degree.
I dont know if this is bad luck or the game being rigged, but so far here are my stats for the rock, paper, scissors game not including draws.
First round: 108 wins 242 losses
Second round: 46 wins 62 losses
Third Round: 18 wins 28 losses
Fourth round: 13 wins 5 losses
Fifth round: 6 wins 7 losses
I still didnt lose a lot of money, but still, my luck is either cursed or this is rigged. I was wondering if anybody else kept track of their stats for the game? Post them
Ive actually played more, but didn't keep up with the stats until the second day of the event lol
Statistically speaking the results look normal. There's only a 1/32 chance of getting to the 5th round.
Posts: 116
Join Date: Jun 2008
IGN: Ebob
Server: Clockworks
Guild: Ancient
07-14-2008, 09:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MStevens24
Your argument is flawed, in the sence that their is a 66% chance that you will be able to continue, and a 33% chance you wont be able to continue.
You cant just say their are only 1 way of winning there fore its only a 50% chance.
Its like this say, their are 10 lottery tickets, 8 tickets let you play again, 1 is a lose 1 is a win.
You can jsut say, its a 50/50 shot!, b/c its not, same thing in this situation. ALthough to a smaller degree.
Read what I said carefully. ;P I said the chance of you not losing it all is 66%, not the chance of winning and going onto the next round is 66%. You always have a 50% chance of winning or losing, when you discard the tie(as it's useless). But when you factor in the tie as a chance of not losing the whole game, you get 3 options. One makes you lose everything, one lets you onto the next round, and one has no effect, neither letting you win nor lose, therefore giving you 2 options that benefit you.